China's burgeoning wealth accepts a new leader.
Hu Jintao, China's Communist Party's general secretary for the past ten years, is set to stand down this week and pass over control of the country to his handpicked successor, Xi Jinping. villa
The ceremonial changing of China's guard
began last week when China's 18th Party Congress assembled in Beijing to say
their adored leader farewell. This once-every-five-year gathering of Communist
intellectuals was eagerly observed by 1.3 billion Chinese - and, of course, the
rest of the globe.
China's expanding high net worth
individuals are perhaps more interested in the larger implications of Hu's
party message than anybody else (HNWI). And the luxury goods and service
providers who cater to this burgeoning new affluent consumer.
Hu offered himself a laud eulogy last
Thursday during a hefty 100-minute lecture to his fellow partygoers, which also
served as a roadmap for Xi's period in government. This formal paper
acknowledged nearly every type of change sweeping China, including economic,
social, political, and environmental concerns. Hu even alluded to the potential
of reducing China's economic control.
Hu, on the other hand, made it apparent
that he is uninterested in radical changes to the existing quo. To put it
another way, China's growing democratization of wealth will be met with
skepticism, and the country's expanding number of millionaires and billionaires
will have to keep a low profile in the near future, to say the least.
China's new leadership, to be sure, has a
lot on its plate. Not only does Xi's dictatorship have to govern a much wealthier
country, but it also has to govern one that is far more complex.
China's population enjoys a significantly
more developed nation, larger overall household income, and less poverty thanks
to three decades of economic development that has hovered around 10 percent per
year.
Nonetheless, today's socioeconomic
disparity between affluent and poor is enormous. Despite the fact that the gap
shrank by 13% under Hu's leadership, the World Bank estimates that 135 million
Chinese, or 10% of the country's population, remain poor, living on less than
$1 per day.
Meanwhile, China has produced tens of
millions of new millionaires. According to the most recent Hurun Report
numbers, there were 1.02 million local Chinese billionaires (those with assets
surpassing Yuan Renminbi 10 million or $1.6 million), up 6% over the previous
year. Another 1,000 local Chinese billionaires (equal to $150 million) were
listed in the newest Hurun China Rich List.
According to a recent research by
Singapore-based consultancy Wealth-X, the number of legitimate billionaires in
China actually decreased by 2% last year, from 150 to 147. The number of
billionaires in the United States, on the other hand, increased by 5.5 percent
to 480 from 455 a year ago, solidifying their position as the world's number
one.
As a result of their wealth portfolios
suffering due to slowed growth and collapsing property markets, many of China's
wealthiest have lost their ravenous appetite for luxury goods. For example,
after becoming the world's second-largest diamond consumer last year,
purchasing 10% of global production (second only to the United States at 38%),
diamond juggernaut De Beers recently announced that China's annual rate of
diamond consumption will fall to 10% this year, down from 20% in 2011.
Meanwhile, Daimler AG announced last week
that its Mercedes-Benz division would miss its earnings target this year, and
that demand for the company's Porsche business would fall next year.
Despite the weakening economy, China's
11,245 UHNWIs (those with a net worth of at least $30 million in assets,
according to Wealth-X) have definitely taken a more showy attitude to
consumption, if for no other reason than the Communist Party's impending change
of guard.
As every wealthy Chinese knows, China's
sphere of influence can shift in an instant, and if you aren't careful, you
could find yourself on the wrong side of the equation (witness the fate of the
Gang of Four in the late 1970s and, more recently, disgraced ex-Communist party
leader Bo Xilai).
So, what does the future hold for luxury
goods and services suppliers? The future of China's luxury retail sector,
according to Wealth-X, should be bright.
Despite signs of weakening, Wealth-X
predicts that "China will post double-digit luxury retail sales growth
compared to single-digit growth numbers for Europe and North America."
To enhance sales and offset growing brand
fatigue among mature luxury consumers in tier one cities, luxury purveyors are
broadening their commercial reach by expanding into second- and third-tier cities
such as Chengdu, Hangzhou, Tianjin, Nanjing, and Wuhan.
Furthermore, Chinese UHNW consumers are
less price-sensitive than their European counterparts, according to Wealth-X,
and Chinese UHNW individuals are increasingly traveling to European cities such
as Paris and London to purchase luxury items at up to a 40% discount while
taking advantage of an appreciating Chinese Yuan.
The lowering of visa rules for Chinese
tourists encouraged the luxury travel phenomena, according to Wealth-X.
Furthermore, luxury tourism's social cachet boosted its popularity among
Chinese UHNWIs. This trend may cause shops to raise the pricing of luxury goods
sold in Europe in order to make them more competitive in Mainland China.
These are just a few of the results from
Wealth-"The X's Global Chinese Luxury Consumer" special report.
Overall, Chinese UHNWIs are estimated to
spend about $6 billion on luxury items this year (excluding real estate and
services), and the population and wealth of Chinese UHNWIs continue to expand.
According to the Wealth-X World Ultra
Wealth Report 2012-2013, Asian UHNW wealth is predicted to expand at an annual
rate of 7.9% over the next five years, with China accounting for the majority
of this increase.
According to Wealth-X, China's economy will
complete its change from an investment-driven model to a consumption-led model
as its urbanization push continues and its middle class develops. The expansion
of its UHNW population and luxury expenditure is likely to be accelerated and
amplified as a result of this shift.
Xi and his new Communist Chinese
counterparts will, of course, have a say in the matter. Especially now that Hu,
China's outgoing leader, mentioned Communist China's founding three times in
his goodbye speech to the Party.
Hu stated that the Party "must
resolutely not follow Western political systems," referring to a phrase
translated as "Mao Zedong Thought," which was not discussed during
the previous five-year party congress. These concepts, according to Qian Gang
of the China Media Project at the University of Hong Kong, should not be taken
lightly.
"It matters when they mention
it," Qian told the New York Times.
It'll only be a matter of time before the
luxury retail sector - and China's super-rich - understand what it all means.
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